MoCo Rent Control Assessment Based on GFS Modeling

Policy wonks and political junkies across Montgomery County were scratching their heads last week after County Executive Mark Elrich and County Council President Natalie Fani-Gonzalez held a press conference to tout the accomplishments of the county’s one-year-old rent stabilization law.

According to county leaders, the rent stabilization rule moderated rent increases, prevented displacement, and proved the county can protect renters without harming the housing market.

In this exclusive report, Montgomery Leek can confirm that those assessments were based on the county’s use of GFS economic modeling. Multiple sources familiar with internal county analysis told Montgomery Leek that senior officials have been relying on a conceptual framework based on the Global Forecast System, the federal government’s numerical weather prediction model that produces broad, probabilistic outcomes.

An official with the county's budget office, who spoke on condition of anonymity, explained it this way:

"With GFS economic modeling, the fact that multifamily permitting fell 95 percent in the year after rent stabilization is inconsequential. GFS converts building revitalization projects into new housing, which pushes the high pressure caused by the collapse of actual new housing over to Northern Virginia, resulting in a localized ‘equity front’ over Bethesda."

When confronted by our reporter while snatching pickles from the Woodmont Deli prep line, Elrich denied selecting favorable scenario runs from a broader universe of possible interpretations. “AI analysis of actual data showing sustained long-term stagnation in housing production is a low-confidence outlier. When models diverge, responsible government reporting highlights the most benign outcome and discounts the extremes."

Despite the rosy picture presented last week, other models and the county's own data suggest Montgomery County's rent stabilization laws are likely to produce little to no accumulation in new multifamily housing starts in 2026.

Elrich disagrees, arguing that the county's reliance on GFS reflects its commitment to American values. "In European modeling, unfavorable long-term signals offset favorable near-term observations. That's as dumb as mayonnaise on French fries," Elrich told our reporter as he dipped a gherkin in a bowl of salsa.